I don't think so at all. On the contrary, I think the opposite will happen and MPEG-4 will open new doors for more FTA channels. It will be less expensive to launch a TV channel on satellite then. Thus, you will see many companies and stations going to satellite to deliver their programming.
MPEG-4 allows more content for the same amount of bandwidth as MPEG-2. That means, more channels sharing the same transponder.
I think, then, more
European, Middle Easterns, and Asian channels,will enter the NA market. For example, in the Middle East, the last count there were more than 140
Arabic FTA channels available. We only get around 20 of these channels in NA.
Also, Hotbird and Astra have 100s of FTA channels. How many of these do we get in NA? very few to none. Imagine when it becomes cheaper to deliver these channels in Europe and NA (using MPEG-4).